The Kremlin wants not only the next election of the head of the self-proclaimed «Donetsk People’s Republic» and the parliament in the “DNR”, but also a new referendum on its state status. The news about the postponement of the elections in the “DNR” and “LNR”, which were planned in the coming autumn, but are postponed for an indefinite period, became known earlier. This was stated by Denis Pusilin, which is close to V. Surkov.
The most interesting thing is that all the Surkov “talking heads” disingenuously pointing out the various reasons why elections are rescheduled in the “DNR” and “LNR”.
The real reason is the presidential and parliamentary elections of -2019 in Ukraine.
And that’s why. According to the strategic concept about Ukraine and “LDNR” that V. Surkov provided to Putin, it should be:
1. Bringing the “pro-Russian” president to power in Ukraine (while there are several players in the deck, for whom different Kremlin Towers are standing);
2. Formation of a parliamentary majority around the “pro-Russian” president during elections to the Verkhovna Rada;
3. Beginning of direct negotiations between the “new” Ukrainian government and “LDNR”, with the mediation of Moscow – a peacekeeper, about the entry of “LDNR” into Ukraine as autonomy with broad rights;
4. Changing the Constitution of Ukraine by “new” Ukrainian government… under a federate nation;
5. Conducting elections of new heads of “republics”, the parliament in the “LDNR”, in order to put less infamous personalities, and a referendum about returning to Ukraine on the rights of autonomy with broad rights.
According to V. Surkov and his “think tank” center, this will allow:
– Lift Western sanctions;
– Push “LDNR” back into Ukraine, leaving behind Kremlin full political and economic control over the territories, but shifting the entire financial burden to Kiev, and to the international community in the matter of restoring;
– Launch another “parade” of 2-3 autonomies within Ukraine to consolidate control over the official Kiev and create additional fuses;
– Stop the integration processes of Ukraine in the EU and NATO.
Therefore, all forces of Surkov and his team, as well as the GRU RF, are pointed now to implement points 1-2, without which the entire strategy collapses like a house of cards. Also, the opponents from other Kremlin Towers are constantly poking “knives in the back” of Surkov and his team, especially the FSB, who cannot make up mind to Surkov’s return to the main roles.
In the event of failure of this strategy, Plan B for “LDNR” is the same current status in the form of a further irritant for Ukraine.
No one will ever take the “LDNR” to Russia, because according to the estimates of the same Surkov team, the infrastructure and the economy LDNR has completely destroyed, and about $ 30-40 billion are needed for recovery (with targeted use) . In addition, the region will be subsidized and at the initial stage it will draw amounts that will be much bigger than for annexed Crimea in several times. And this is without mentioning the level of criminogenic situation, ecology and etc.
Apparently, Moscow wants to push back the “LDNR” into Ukraine on autonomy rights, and then to get money from the Ukrainian budget and international finance for reconstruction with help its proxies. At the same time, Kremlin wants to lift the sanctions and leave the Crimea “behind the brackets”.