Concerning the current social and economic situation in the LDNR
There is a tendency to further deterioration of the social and economic situation in the occupied areas of Donetsk and Lugansk regions. Attempts to reorient the sale of LDNR raw materials and finished products to the Russian market did not lead to an improvement in the situation and the restoration of the stable functioning of the budget-forming industries in the occupied territories.
This is most felt in the coal mining industry, because the measures taken by the Ukrainian side forced the leaders of the “republics” and their Russian curators to drastically revise the expected indicators for the more pessimistic. At the same time, the only direction in the sale of coal, which was previously consumed by Ukraine, was the Russian Federation. The increase in coal exports to Russia is presented by the leaders of LDNR as a result of the successful cooperation of DNR and LNR with the Russian Federation, but the financial return of such cooperation is much lower compared to Ukrainian consumers.
The reason is that the sale of most of the coal produced to Russian intermediaries is for a pittance, at $ 30-35, with a prime cost of $ 67 per ton. So, company Gaz-Alliance (controlled by S. Kurchenko, the importer of 75% of the coal from the LNR) buys steam coal at the price 32$ per ton.
The subsequent resale of coal by Russian intermediaries from LDNR to third countries is already carried out at world market prices in the range from $ 100 up to $ 160 per ton.
At the same time, the LDNR leaders should not expect to increase revenues from coal sales to Russians to patch up “republican” social holes, since the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation until 2035 envisages only a further reduction in coal consumption in Russia and an increase in the export of its own coal to support its industry (2013 – 153 million tons, 2014 – 156 million tons, 2016 – 165 million tons, in 2017 expected – 175 million tons, and in 2025 – 197 million tons). Given the limited logistical capabilities of the Black Sea-Azov ports of the Russian Federation (the total volume of transshipment in 2011 is 9.2 million tons per year) and railway crossings on the uncontrolled section of the Russian-Ukrainian border, coal from the mines of the occupied Donbass at market prices is unlikely will be interested to anyone.
In addition, all eight coal-fired power units of the Russian Novocherkasskaya SDPP are expected to be closed at 2021, which is the only single coal consumer in the south of Russia (owned by Gazprom). The expected additional surplus of coal is about 3-4 million tons.
As a result, even if the entire volume of coal planned by the “republics” will be sold at “market” prices offered by “fraternal Russian” second-hand dealers ( $ 30-35), the funds will not be enough even for paying current wages to miners, let alone already about the repayment of wage arrears, which today amounts to several billion Russian rubles.