HomeAnalyticsDaily Highlights: 30/09/2014

Daily Highlights: 30/09/2014

Heroic defenders of Donetsk airport continue to fight off continuous tank attacks by militants. Russia is preparing the next phase of the invasion of Ukraine. OSCE sabotages the monitoring of terrorists’ actions. Activists are beating up running for parliament members of the Party of Regions because of the reluctance of the authorities to carry out lustration. “Lenin-falling” continues.

Ukraine

●      President Poroshenko said that Kyiv and Brussels have completed all the formalities for the launch of the Association Agreement as early as November 1st, but under pressure from Russia, the EU Council adopted a formal decision to postpone the introduction of a free trade zone with Ukraine until the end of 2015.
●      At a press conference, Prosecutor General Yarema tried to make excuses for the charges of nepotism, protectionism, corruption in the department. He also gave explanations on the investigation of high-profile cases with the shootings of the Maidan protestors, the activities of former President Yanukovych and his entourage, as well as reported on the investigation of events in Ilovais’k, which lead to hundreds of Ukrainian military being killed, wounded and captured by Russian troops and terrorists.
●      Police opened a criminal case on hooliganism after beating of MP from the Party of Regions Shufrich Ukrainian by activists in Odessa during pre-election activities.
●      The Administrative Court of Kyiv declared legal the registration as a candidate of the former head of the SBU Khoroshkovsky, who was absent from Ukraine eighteen months.
●      Following Kharkov, activists tore down statues of Lenin in Svatovo and Izyum.
●      National Bank has slightly lowered the hryvna exchange rate against the major currencies: UAH 12.94 / $ (+4 cop), 15.44 UAH / € (-1 cop), 3.29 UAH / 10 RUB (-4 cop). National Bank has warned that banks caught in swaying the exchange rate and charging additional fees to customers will loose their licenses. The real selling rate of cash dollar is within the range of 14,3-14,7 UAH / $.

War in Ukraine

●      Fierce battles are continuing for the Donetsk International Airport, which the Ukrainian military refused to leave after an ultimatum put forward by the militants.
●      Terrorists continue shelling residential areas of cities. The shelling destroyed infrastructure, killed and injured civilians, destroyed a large number of houses in Donets’k, Makiyivka, Popasna, Schastya.
●      Russia continues to pull its troops to the Ukrainian border, including missile systems “Tochka-U” (NATO: SS-21 Scarab A) and sabotage and reconnaissance groups, some of which are already on the Ukrainian territory, in Donets’k. According to representatives of NATO, and the Speaker of the State Department, Russian troops and military equipment have not withdrawn фром Ukraine, the border is not passed under the control of Ukrainian border guards and continuous fights are ongoing in Donets’k.
●      According to the journalist Tsaplienko, OSCE observers are monitoring only actions of the Ukrainian army, since they are simply not allowed to come even close to the positions of the terrorists. Governor of Luhansk region Moskal also announced self-extrication of the OSCE mission from fulfilling their responsibilities for monitoring the positions of militants.

International

●      At a meeting in Brussels, EU officials upheld the package of sanctions against Russia, which has committed an act of aggression against Ukraine.
●      On the Moscow stock exchange, ruble reached another record low against the major currencies. According to a top manager Klepach from Vnesheconombank, under conditions of the fall of oil prices, capital outflows from Russia and the economic sanctions, there are no prospects for strengthening of the ruble in the near future. According to Russian media, Central Bank of Russia is ready to impose restrictions on the movement of capital abroad.
●      Price quotes for Brent crude oil reached another two-year low. Following Brent, prices for Russian oil URALS lowered to a level below the budgeted.
●      Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the autumn conscription for military service of more than 150,000 recruits.
●      President Obama authorized the release of the additional assistance of $123 million to ten countries, including Ukraine, through special funds. The amount of aid for Ukraine is not named.
●      Press attache of Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Perebiynis said that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has condemned Russia’s attempts to take control of the Ukrainian nuclear facilities on the occupied territory of Crimea.
●      The theme of the October EU summit will be energy security and diversification of natural gas supply, which means greater control over the activities of Gazprom and can lead to the ultimate cancellation of the “South Stream” project. Polish President Komorowski urged the EU to support the concept of creating a European Energy Union for joint actions against Russia, which is using gas as a weapon.

Trends

●      Russia is preparing an invasion force on the border with Ukraine and in Crimea. Some of sabotage and reconnaissance groups are already operating in the country. Russian military are directing units of militants and Russian mercenaries, which are storming Donetsk airport and attacking positions of Ukrainian troops throughout the Donbass. Russia will not be able to solve the problem of supplying the Crimea without creation of a land corridor through the south of Ukraine.
●      The degree of tension in the Ukrainian society is growing. In the absence of reaction of law enforcement and the judiciary on corruption and support for terrorism and the lack of lustration, activists are beginning to use physical force on the politicians.

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