HomeAnalyticsSummary – September 4, 2014

Summary – September 4, 2014

The bad news:

1. Russian occupiers clearly set Mariupol as their next target. Today, a battle took place under Shyrokyno. But it was – regular combat reconnaissance.

We don’t yet know how much blood will be spilled to defend Mariupol. According to our data, the Ukrainian command is also gathering a formidable force around the city – in fact, rather than just in word. The residents of Mariupol are also ready to stand and defend their city with their lives. This gives us hope that the tricolor plague will not pass [through].

At the same time, there is a threat of an active offense of Russian terrorist troops, even in the nearest hours. The enemy may try to capture as much territory as possible before any peace talks take place – that will be the area that Putin will try to turn into a “new Transnistria” in Donbas.

2. While the Kremlin is going on about its “plan for peace,” and fighting continues in Donbas, the Russians are busy deploying ever more new units to Ukraine. A substantial reserve force is on standby.

Today, the National Security and Defense Council [RNBO of Ukraine] reported 14 battalion task forces and nearly 1,000 pieces of military equipment in the borderland areas of Russia adjacent to Ukraine.

According to our own data, the number of battalion task forces is higher; plus, there are reports of company task forces as well as sabotage reconnaissance groups. We do not wish to argue with the RNBO, but one thing is clear – Moscow certainly does not look in the mood for peace talks.

3. The unsavory resonance continues around the commander of the Prykarpattya territorial defense battalion, arrested for unauthorized departure from the ATO area. It becomes one of the many reasons [for soldiers] to express strong disapproval towards the military command, and to declare battlefield deserters to be heroes.

Personally, I am in no hurry to lock horns with anyone about this situation, and other similar ones. Let us remember that everyone has their own version of the truth (and by the way, because of the abandonment by some units of their positions, our troops recently ended up in the “boiler” entrapments, which resulted in significant loss). To establish the true picture – is the task of the investigation. If someone is then in disagreement with its conclusions – then we can argue.

At the same time, justice cannot be selective – especially in wartime. If the battalion commander sits behind bars, there is a place there as well for those gentlemen in the ranks and positions higher who also abandoned their forces and ran, as well as those whose mistakes or inaction result in the deaths of our guys.

For example, today, the Azov Battalion informed [us] that the rashists destroyed the battalion’s fortified area and the border guards, because of “generals who spent two hours promising accurate artillery fire – but then did nothing.” Should the names of these generals be communicated to the Military Prosecutor’s office, and the situation examined under close public scrutiny? One general punished today can mean hundreds, if not thousands of lives saved tomorrow.

The good news:

1. President Petro Poroshenko, together with the leaders of the USA, Germany, France, the UK, and Italy, agreed to the draft of a peace plan that should be adopted on the level of the “trilateral contact group,” with the participation of the representatives of terrorist organizations.

Personally, I have little faith in the possibility of peaceful dialogue without damage to our interests. There is hope here, in the side note made by Poroshenko – if the negotiations fail, another option is on the table, one he described as “decisive action.”

Let us await further developments – hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

2. NATO does not promise [Ukraine] military aid, but will offer no objections if separate Alliance Member countries help Ukraine. This was said today by NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen.

This is a position meant to please both sides – neither exactly refusing help to Kyiv, nor provoking Moscow’s anger. But we can recall that very recently, European countries balked at the mere discussion of military aid, even defensive arms. With that in mind, this is definite progress.

Plus, NATO speaks of creating four trust funds for Ukraine. It is known that such trust funds are filled at the request of separate member-countries of the Alliance. This means that our diplomatic corps must work hard in order for these “piggy banks” to work. I hope they will succeed.

3. The leaders of prominent Western countries gathered at the current NATO summit in Wales were in general approval of the idea to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The decision to that effect should be taken tomorrow.

Further comments here are superfluous. And now, at the wakes of their soldiers who died in Donbas, Russian folks have to eat homegrown turnips instead of parmesan. If further sanctions hit Russia – it will only be a plus.


Grad near Mariupol:


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