The bad news:
1. The Ukrainian troops are challenged with a task which they weren’t used to during the period of the ATO [anti-terrorism operation]: positional defense.
This entire time we’ve had a sort of semi-guerrilla war, in which we bet on maneuvers and raids. It worked while mostly local terrorists and Russian mercenaries fought against our forces. But now, when Donbas has suddenly ended up full of Russian regular troops, the main task of our command is to save their units from the boilers that have formed, the regrouping of forces, and withdrawal into defense – in order to then prepare an offensive.
The bad news is that the Russian-terrorist troops will take advantage of this operative pause in order to reinforce their positions: plus the Russians have more than enough reserve troops at the border. Of course, we can still hope for a “peaceful settlement,” which, it seems, is what the Ukrainian government is counting on – but it is quite doubtful whether the conditions of the terrorists turn out to be acceptable.
Under these conditions, the number of currently mobilized soldiers and volunteers is definitely insufficient for further action. Whereas, putting thousands of newly mobilized servicemen under the gun – is not the best political move before the elections. How Ukrainian leadership will operate under these conditions – is anyone’s guess.
2. A strange picture is forming. Putin, now and then, throws around extraordinary statements, and Peskov runs around after him explaining that Putin has been misunderstood. So it was with his “taking Kyiv within two weeks,” and today with his statement about the “agreement on a permanent ceasefire in Donbas.”
I understand that his joy over the occupation of Crimea made irrevocable changes to Putin’s psyche – a kind of aphasia. His mental mechanisms for language are evidently violated – he clearly and distinctly says one thing, but meanwhile he means something completely opposite.
Kremlin guys, please urgently get your boss a sensible neurolinguist. I feel sorry for the guy. And it remains a mystery how Peskov understands what Putin wanted to say. Looks like the bastard learned to read his master’s thoughts. Later Putin spoke of his “peace plan:” to withdraw Ukrainian troops, to cease fire, to not in any way interfere with the terrorists under the cover of Russian troops from settling on occupied territories. In short, Putin’s plan is a clear plan to deprive Ukraine of Donbas and turn the latter into a new Transnistria. Which is what we have said many times.
3. Throughout the past three days we, the Information Resistance group, have been trying to find at least a hint of informational-psychological action (actions, operations, it makes no difference) of our profiling structures to deliver to the Russian soldiers in Ukraine and Russian society information on the status of the occupants. Alas, to no avail. Obviously, even if such actions are carried out (we have had quite a powerful informational-psychological operations structure within the Ministry of Defense since the beginning of March), they are very secretive. I would say, too much so.
Meanwhile we shouldn’t underestimate the actions aimed to demoralize the enemy and society of the opposing country. It is an integral part of all modern military operations.
The bottom line is that Russian troops invading Ukraine are criminals not only from the point of view of international law, but in fact Russian as well. As is known, after the annexation of Crimea, the decision of the Russian Federation Council to send troops into Ukraine was cancelled. Therefore, there is no legal justification for the current location of Russian troops in Donbas at all. I am convinced that nobody will ever be able to find written orders to invade – the Russian KGB leadership will take care of that.
In practice this means that the Russian soldiers will never receive the status of combatants, neither social ‘bonuses,’ in the case of the Russian occupier’s injury or death, and their families shouldn’t even dream of any kind of state pensions.
Esteemed Russian aggressors, your Head Commander has set you up stupidly, they won’t hang little medals around your necks for Donbas like they did for Crimea. On the contrary: should Putin’s mood or the government in Russia change, you will become war criminals in your own country.
Communicating this simple and enlightened thought to the Russians is needed.
The good news:
1. The Cabinet of Ministers reported today: Ukraine is launching a national project, “The Wall,” to strengthen the border with Russia. A wall with barbed wire will stand 2 meters high along the entire border with the Russian Federation, with electrical currents running through some areas. The territory near the wall will be mined and ensured with protective trenches.
It’s a good decision. Only, they should encourage this project to be converted from a national one into an international one, with the involvement of all of Russia’s neighbors. To surround Putin’s empire with barbed wire would be the right step. Animals should be caged.
2. The government begins work on the new Military doctrine. As Prime Minister A. Yatsenyuk noted, “with the clear definition of who is the aggressor and who is a threat. In this new defense doctrine, Russia should be recognized as an aggressor state and the main and only state that threatens our territorial integrity and national security.”
I applaud this – it’s long overdue. Just allow me a humble remark from the gallery: it’s worth it to start to develop a new National Security and Defense strategy, as the one adopted under Yanukovych in 2012 is complete pornography. And then take on the Military Doctrine, which must be based on the conceptual framework outlined in the Strategy. Of course, I do not insist, but it should be according to the logic of the process of preparing such documents. We should slowly get out of the habit of putting the cart before the horse.
3. The Parliamentary Committee on Legislative Support of Law Enforcement activities recommended that the Verkhovna Rada [Ukrainian Parliament] pass bill №4262, which provides a temporary termination of Ukrainian citizenship. This is for those who were convicted of crimes against national security (to deny citizenship is prohibited by the Constitution, but to temporarily suspend it – not a problem).
This is, as I understand it, a knight’s move. A stateless person can neither hold posts, nor dispose of property, and are even deprived of the right to vote. So, condemn every Regional [Party of Regionals member] and Communist longing for Russia to 90 years of suspension of citizenship, and the matter is closed. You say they won’t live that long? Well, gentlemen, this is not our problem. Let them long.
Dmitry Tymchuk, Coordinator, Information Resistance
Translated and edited by Voices of Ukraine